Reliability Assessment of Planetary Pin Position Errors in Large-Scale Aerospace Planetary Systems Based on the Kriging Model

Planetary gear systems, serving as core components for high-precision power transmission in engineering applications, exhibit compromised reliability due to nonlinear dynamic interactions between component flexibility and manufacturing/assembly errors. Conventional rigid-body assumptions and single-factor analyses fail to address multi-source deformation effects, while Monte Carlo simulations prove computationally prohibitive for multiobjective optimization under complex operating conditions. This study develops a Kriging surrogate-enhanced framework integrating finite element dynamics with flexible planet carrier modeling to resolve the coupling mechanism between carrier deformation and pin positional errors. The methodology enables global multi-condition optimization through systematic acquisition of error-induced load/stress distributions and reliability predictions. The results demonstrate that the tangential position error has a considerably greater impact on reliability than the radial error. The surrogate model achieves computational efficiency improvement while accurately capturing the nonlinear threshold effect of error-reliability. This provides a highly efficient decision-making framework for balancing the manufacturing tolerance and system reliability, and significantly improves the analysis efficiency and engineering applicability.