Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives

This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the tourism potential of Northeastern Brazil by analyzing historical trends and future climate projections, identifying climate risks, and proposing spatially targeted adaptation strategies. Historical daily climate data from the BR-DWGD and future projections from the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model under the SSP2 4.5 scenario were used to evaluate extremes in temperature and precipitation. Principal component analysis and spatial cluster analysis were applied to identify five climatically homogeneous zones across the region. Results indicate generalized warming trends and intensifying rainfall extremes, particularly in coastal clusters where tourism infrastructure is concentrated. Inland zones, especially those with semi-arid climates, exhibit rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increasing water scarcity. These differentiated climatic patterns pose risks to infrastructure, ecosystem services, and the overall sustainability of tourism. In response, the study proposes adaptation measures tailored to each zone, including improved drainage systems, sustainable cooling technologies, rainwater harvesting, and diversification of tourism activities. Emphasis is placed on community-based governance to enhance social equity and resilience. The findings highlight the relevance of spatialized climate analysis for guiding adaptation planning and supporting a more inclusive and climate-resilient tourism sector in the region.