Statistical Modeling of PPP-RTK Derived Ionospheric Residuals for Improved ARAIM MHSS Protection Level Calculation

Ensuring Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) integrity, which provides operational reliability via fault detection, is important for safety-critical applications using high-precision techniques like Precise Point Positioning (PPP) and Real-Time Kinematic (RTK). Ionospheric errors, from atmospheric free electrons, challenge this integrity by introducing variable uncertainties into positioning solutions. This study investigates how ionospheric error modeling spatial resolution impacts protection level (PL) calculations, a metric defining positioning error bounds with high confidence. A comparative evaluation was conducted in low-latitude (Guangdong) and mid-latitude (Shandong) regions, contrasting large-scale with small-scale grid-based ionospheric models from regional GNSS networks. Experimental results show small-scale grids improve characterization of localized ionospheric variability, reducing ionospheric residual standard deviation by approximately 30% and enhancing PL precision. Large-scale grids show limitations, especially in active low-latitude conditions, leading to conservative PLs that reduce system availability and increase missed fault detection risks. A user-side PL computation framework incorporating this high-resolution ionospheric residual uncertainty improved system availability to 94.7% and lowered misleading and hazardous outcomes by over 80%. This research indicates that refined, high-resolution ionospheric modeling improves operational reliability and safety for high-integrity GNSS applications, particularly under diverse and challenging ionospheric conditions.