A Hierarchical Water Supply–Demand Regulation Model Coupling System Dynamics and Feedback Control Mechanisms: A Case Study in Wu’an City, China

Water scarcity has become a critical global challenge, particularly in rapidly developing regions where water demand often exceeds sustainable supply capacities. Traditional “demand-driven” water management approaches have proven inadequate to address this imbalance, necessitating the development of more sophisticated “supply-driven” solutions. This study presents a groundbreaking System Dynamics (SD)-Feedback-Hierarchical Water Demand (SD-F-HWD) model that advances water resources management through three contributions. First, the model substantially extends conventional water demand hierarchy methods by developing a comprehensive classification framework with enhanced sector-specific criteria for industrial, agricultural, and ecological needs. Second, the innovative feedback regulation mechanism resolves persistent challenges from previous studies, including ambiguous control parameters and system instability. Third, the model establishes a unified analytical platform that effectively integrates these components for robust supply–demand equilibrium analysis. Validation in Wu’an City, Hebei Province—a representative water-stressed industrial region in northern China—demonstrated the model’s effectiveness. Under low-flow conditions (P = 75%), total water demand decreased by 11.24% while rigid demand was reduced by 8.50%. For normal flow conditions (P = 50%), corresponding reductions reached 9.88% and 6.99%, respectively. Crucially, all adjustments remained within practical policy implementation boundaries, demonstrating the model’s real-world applicability. The SD-F-HWD model offers a practical and scalable solution for sustainable water allocation in water-stressed regions through its integrated methodological framework.