Sustainable forestry industry development in developing countries: A case study of China’s policy effectiveness

• Evaluates China’s forestry policy using topic modeling and index consistency analysis. • Topic modeling identifies industrial ecology and ecological industry as key sustainable pathways. • Policy subjects and objects are lagged in policy consistency. Developing countries often grapple with the dual challenges of resource scarcity and poverty in their pursuit of sustainable industrial growth. This study offers a systematic and quantitative evaluation of forestry policy effectiveness in China since 2003—an area that has received limited attention in empirical policy analysis. Using text mining techniques in conjunction with the Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) Index, we construct a structured assessment framework to examine the internal coherence and implementation focus of key forestry-related policies. Our analysis highlights the need to advance industrial ecology, especially in wood processing and paper manufacturing, and to develop ecologically centered industries focused on non-timber forest products. The evaluation points to a high policy consistency in sectors like paper and camellia oil production. However, a notable misalignment between policy agents and intended beneficiaries highlights the need for improved stakeholder engagement and adaptive policy design. We recommend enhancing participatory mechanisms and introducing market-based instruments to strengthen policy performance. The findings provide critical insights for ecological policy optimization and the sustainable transformation of forestry industries in China and other resource-constrained economies.