Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world's largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha<sup>-1</sup> y<sup>-1</sup> is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2025-06-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122
Citations
13
Primary Topic
Seed and Plant Biochemistry
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
15.11

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article

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

‪João Vasco Silva, Patricio Grassini, Fatima A. Tenorio, Frederick Baijukya et al.
13 citations
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Seed and Plant Biochemistry
15.11
article

Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa

‪João Vasco Silva, Patricio Grassini, Fatima A. Tenorio, Frederick Baijukya, M.K. van Ittersum, H.L.E. de Groot, Marloes P. van Loon, Kindie Tesfaye, Seyyedmajid Alimagham, Régis Chikowo, G. Taulya, Timothy B. Sulser, Shen Yuan, Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé, Abdullahi Bala, S. Adjei-Nsiah, Aphrodis Nshizirungu
article en
13 citations

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world's largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha<sup>-1</sup> y<sup>-1</sup> is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 122(24)
University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US), University of Ghana (GH), International Food Policy Research Institute (US), University of Zimbabwe (ZW), Huazhong Agricultural University (CN), Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (KE), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SE), Nasarawa State University (NG), International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (TZ), Graduate School Experimental Plant Sciences (NL), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger (NE), Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (GH), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (CN), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (KE), Ministry of Agriculture (TN), Makerere University (UG), Federal University of Technology Minna (NG), Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, International Fine Particle Research Institute, Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers, Wageningen University and Research
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Seed and Plant Biochemistry
15.11
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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