Real estate dynamics and rental housing in peripheral areas: an analysis of prices, transactions, turnover and rental guarantees in the peripheries of São Paulo (2014-2024)

Residential rent is a key factor when analyzing the interplay between family reproduction and income dynamics in contemporary capitalism. This connection raises significant questions regarding the social production of urban space, especially in light of the transformations in addressing the housing problem, particularly in peripheral areas. Therefore, this article analyzes rental housing in 21 peripheral districts in the city of São Paulo between 2014 and 2024, based on the hypothesis that the role of rents as a means of accessing urban land has grown in significance. This shift has implied increased dynamism in terms of rental prices, property turnover, and changes in rental guarantees. The main contributions of the article are grounded in an exploratory analysis of indicators derived from the rental database of the Regional Council of Realtors of the State of São Paulo, which has been underexplored in the existing literature. The key findings are: (i) a consistent increase in rental prices in peripheral districts, occurring at higher rates than in the districts that make up the expanded center of the São Paulo metropolitan area; (ii) a high turnover in rental properties; (iii) an increasing number of real estate agencies operating in the peripheral areas; and (iv) evidence of a growing market (executed and potential contracts). The findings of this article further support the hypothesis that a shift has occurred in the pattern of housing access in the peripheries, which has thereby reduced the importance of self-building and increased the participation of rental housing.