Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery
Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our 'ambitious' scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a -0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%. Our 'conservative' scenario (884 launches/year) yields -0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030. Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion. Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable.
Authors
- Sandro Vattioni (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4099-3903)
- Timofei Sukhodolov (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7100-738X)
- Tyler F. M. Brown (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5964-3823)
- John Cater (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3233-4000)
- Michele T. Bannister (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3257-4490)
- J. A. Dykema (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7611-6163)
- Eugene Rozanov (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0479-4488)
- Gabriel Chiodo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8079-6314)
- David J. Frame (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0949-3994)
- Laura E. Revell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8974-7703)
Institutions
- Harvard University (US)
- St Petersburg University (RU)
- University of Canterbury (NZ)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (CH)
- Instituto de Geociencias (ES)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Published
- 2025-06-09
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01098-6
- Citations
- 4
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 5.20
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Simons Foundation
- University of Canterbury
- New Zealand Government
- Royal Society Te Apārangi
- Science Foundation Ireland
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- Saint Petersburg State University
- Centro Svizzero di Calcolo Scientifico
- National Supercomputing Centre Singapore