Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment in Minjiang River basin based on the adaptive cycle model

• Forest carbon stock ecological risk assessment using adaptive cycle model. • Analyzing the evolution of forest carbon stock and forest carbon stock ecological risk in 2000, 2010 and 2020. • Negative correlation between forest carbon stock ecological risk and carbon stock. • Spatial clustering of forest carbon stock ecological risk and carbon stock is mainly HL, LH. As the main carbon reservoir of terrestrial ecosystems, small changes in forest ecosystems can lead to the destabilization of carbon stock, affecting the global carbon cycle and the climate, thus triggering ecological risks. Scientific assessment of forest carbon stock ecological risk and optimization of the security pattern of forest ecosystem carbon stock is an urgent need for scientific ecological environmental protection. In order to accurately assess forest carbon stock ecological risk, this study analyzes multiple sources of risk, synthesizes landscape patterns and ecological processes, and constructs a three-dimensional framework of the ecological adaptive cycle of “potential − connectedness − resilience” to assess forest carbon stock ecological risk. The ecological risk of forest carbon stocks in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was partitioned into two regions in collaboration with carbon stocks and ecological risk, which facilitated targeted regulation. The research results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the forest carbon stock in the Minjiang River Basin showed a trend of initial increase followed by a decrease, with a reduction of 18.25 × 10 6 t over the 20-year period, The spatial evolution of high-risk areas for forest carbon stock ecological risk mainly extended from the central region to the southwest, with risk transfer primarily occurring between adjacent ecological risk levels. Forest carbon stock ecological risk is negatively correlated with carbon stock overall, with the spatial distribution characterized by a pattern of high carbon stock-low ecological risk and low carbon stock-high ecological risk clustering. The ecological risk assessment of forest carbon stocks is of great significance in enhancing regional carbon sink capacity, promoting rational land utilization and green low-carbon development.