The influence of stress release on the spatial and magnitude distribution of subsequent earthquakes

SUMMARY Determining when and where the next big earthquake will occur is a fundamental challenge in earthquake forecasting. Although it is reasonable to assume that the next major earthquake will occur in regions where stress has been increased by previous events, the most common and reliable earthquake forecasting models assume that the magnitude of next earthquakes is independent from what happen before and, implicitly, from the stress state. In this study, we investigate the correlation between stress distribution and the occurrence of large earthquakes using a realistic physical model. Our findings reveal that the next big earthquake is more likely to occur on the periphery of previous large earthquakes, where stress has accumulated but not yet been relaxed. Additionally, we explore how stress redistribution influences the magnitude distribution of aftershocks. These results can inform the introduction of correlations between large earthquakes in existing seismic forecasting models, potentially enhancing their accuracy and reliability.