Remote Sensing Monitoring of Degradation and Natural Regeneration of Three Populations of Juniperus turbinata Guss. in Eastern Morocco

Juniperus turbinata is an endemic species of the Mediterranean region, recognized for its role in ecological balance. However, concerns have been raised regarding its state of conservation. The objective of this study is twofold: firstly, to assess the rate of degradation of this species in the eastern region of Morocco; and secondly, to monitor the rate of natural regeneration to determine whether this compensates for the rate of degradation. To this end, three populations of red juniper were studied: the littoral (Saidia), the semi-continental (Oued Elhimer) in Jerrada, and the continental (Ich and Abou Lkhel) in Figuig. The first study objective is based on the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) based on satellite images from 1986, 2000, and 2022. The study’s second objective focuses on locating new regenerations of J. turbinata using the Global Positioning System (GPS). The results of this study are alarming, showing a significant loss in the area occupied by J. turbinata in the eastern region of three study sites between 1986 and 2022. The area of J. turbinata matorral decreased by 99.05%, 95.10%, and 89.32% in the coastal, semi-continental, and continental regions of Figuig province, respectively. Regarding the natural regeneration of J. turbinata plants, 121 regenerations were observed along the coast. In the semi-continental region, 27 regenerations were recorded. However, no regeneration was found at the Figuig site. The study reveals that, over the past four decades, the average annual decline J. turbinata in the three regions was 2.62%. Conversely, the average rate of regeneration was recorded as 0.03%. Projections indicate a precipitous decline in the distribution of J. turbinata, with probable extinction of the species in northeastern Morocco.