Mini-grid performance in Sub-Saharan Africa: case studies from Tsumkwe and Gam, Namibia

Abstract This paper investigates the performance analysis and operational challenges of mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the Tsumkwe and Gam mini-grids, the only officially recognized mini-grids in Namibia. The study addresses a critical gap in understanding mini-grid efficiency, technical difficulties, and future potential. The key research questions focus on assessing mini-grid performance, identifying technical and operational challenges, quantifying the relationship between electricity demand and supply, and providing recommendations for enhancing rural electrification through mini-grids. These insights are crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of mini-grids in the African context and understanding their role in advancing rural electrification. By using a mixed-method approach, the research combines quantitative and qualitative data to offer a comprehensive analysis of these two mini-grid systems of Namibia. The data collected from 2017 to 2022 include metrics on energy supply, consumption, photovoltaic generation, community load, and meteorological conditions. Qualitative insights were gathered through field visits, surveys, and interviews with mini-grid operators, allowing for a thorough examination of community perspectives, operational issues, and technical performance. The findings reveal that the Tsumkwe mini-grid has seen a decline in efficiency due to maintenance problems and battery overheating, while the Gam mini-grid, initially oversized, now struggles with increased demand and new connections. This study provides the first detailed technical insights, identifies consumer archetypes, and evaluates the energy dynamics of mini-grids in Namibia. Recommendations include improved maintenance protocols, advanced battery management, and enhanced data monitoring. By analyzing Tsumkwe and Gam, this paper offers valuable lessons for mini-grid development in Sub-Saharan Africa, stressing the need for continuous evaluation and strategic improvements to achieve sustainable rural electrification.