Misguided mortgage choices: Financial literacy, inflation expectations, and borrowing decisions

This study examines how financial literacy influences mortgage selection, particularly the decision to link mortgages to the consumer price index (CPI). Using household-level data, we investigate the role of expected inflation, which should guide optimal mortgage choices. However, we find that low socioeconomic status (SES) borrowers disproportionately rely on current (easily available) inflation rather than inflation expectations. In contrast, financially literate borrowers—from higher SES groups—are better equipped to overcome cognitive biases and base their decisions on expected inflation. This divergence leads low-SES borrowers to systematically anchor their choices to current inflation, often resulting in suboptimal mortgage selection. A unique aspect of our setting is the absence of financial advisors, ensuring that observed decisions reflect borrowers’ own financial literacy and cognitive processing. Our findings emphasize the role of financial literacy in mitigating cognitive biases and promoting better financial decision-making. Expanding financial education initiatives could help low-SES borrowers make more informed mortgage choices, reducing costly selection errors and improving long-term financial stability.