Thermal evolution model from cometary nuclei to asteroids considering contraction associated with ice sublimation

Abstract Comet–asteroid transition (CAT) objects are small solar system bodies that are in the process of evolving from cometary nuclei into asteroids, as they gradually lose volatile substances due to solar heating. The volatile material is mainly water ice, and the time required for its complete depletion is called the desiccation time. Estimating the desiccation time is important for examining the formation and evolution of small solar system bodies. Here, we propose a new theoretical model for evaluating the desiccation time as a function of orbital elements, considering the contraction of the entire cometary nucleus due to ice sublimation. First, we performed numerical calculations of the thermal evolution of a cometary nucleus in an eccentric orbit, considering the seasonal variation in the solar heating rate. Next, we derived the desiccation time analytically as a function of orbital elements based on a steady-state model considering the solar heating rate averaged over the seasons. We compared the numerical solutions for the desiccation time with the analytical solutions and clarified the conditions under which the analytical model can be applied. Additionally, based on the analytical model, we derived formulae for estimating the emission rates of water vapor and dust on the surface of the cometary nucleus, the maximum size of the emitted dust, and the dust emission velocity, by assuming the amount of ice remaining inside the nucleus. Using these analytical solutions, we considered the internal structure and evolution process of typical CAT objects. Our analytical model is generally consistent with that of the results of earlier observations of these objects. Our model provides a theoretical guideline for discussing the evolution of cometary nuclei and the possibility of retaining internal ice in asteroids.