Evaluating the impact of rainfall patterns on sustainable agricultural crop production

In a country like India agricultural production and yield are closely associated with rainfall amounts. In this context, the present paper highlights the rainfall variability and its relation with agricultural production in Bankura district of West Bengal. For the study the present paper used two sets of rainfall data—IMD (India Meteorological Department) and satellite-based gridded CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) data of the Climate Hazard Group from 1981 to 2021 and agricultural data from 1999 to 2018. Non-parametric trend detection techniques are utilized to find out the changing trend of precipitation and SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), Seasonality Index and Precipitation Ratio are applied to study the changing precipitation trends throughout the study period. Apart from these, the consequence of El Niño on monsoonal rainfall distribution and its onset in the study area has been analysed. The correlation analysis between annual rainfall and rice production revealed a moderate positive relationship (r = 0.40), indicating that variations in rainfall have a noticeable influence on rice yield in the study area. The result shows a clear significant increasing trend of rainfall in the area during the study period. It has been observed that some area like Chatna, Saltora highly depend on rainfall for paddy cultivation. The findings highlight the importance of localized rainfall monitoring for sustainable agricultural planning. This research can support local farmers and policymakers by identifying rainfall-sensitive zones and promoting drought-resilient cropping strategies. Future research may focus on integrating socio-economic and soil-related variables to enhance the understanding of agro-climatic vulnerability in rainfed regions.