Determinants of the inflation expectations’ uncertainty based on the all-Russian survey

The study is based on a unique survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (inFOM) as part of the Bank of Russia’s inflation expectations (IE) monitoring in May 2024. The survey is representative of the Russian population. Uncertainty of inflation expectations (IEU) is approximately 10 percentage points and increases with both higher inflation expectations and the respondent’s age. IEU is higher among those who believe the time is suitable for purchases, lower among men, and decreases with higher levels of education. To measure IEU, the survey introduced new questions in addition to the traditional one that asked respondents to choose a single interval for expected inflation in 12 months. These new questions asked about the relative likelihood of inflation falling within each proposed interval. The estimates of inflation expectations based on these new questions were lower than those based on the traditional single-question method.