Effects of Research Paper Promotion via ArXiv and X

In the evolving landscape of scientific publishing, it is important to understand the drivers of high-impact research, to equip scientists with actionable strategies to enhance the reach of their work, and to understand trends in the use of modern scientific publishing tools to inform their further development. Here, based on a dataset of over 0.5 million publications in computer science and physics, we study trends in the use of early preprint publications and revisions on ArXiv and the use of X (formerly Twitter) for promotion of such papers. We find that early submissions to ArXiv and promotion on X have soared in recent years. Estimating the effect that the use of each of these modern affordances has on the number of citations of scientific publications, we find that peer-reviewed conference papers in computer science that are submitted early to ArXiv gain on average 21.1 ± 17.4 more citations, revised on ArXiv gain 18.4 ± 17.6 more citations, and promoted on X gain 44.4 ± 8 more citations in the first 5 years from an initial publication. In contrast, journal articles in physics experience comparatively lower boosts in citation counts, with increases of 3.9 ± 1.1, 4.3 ± 0.9, and 6.9 ± 3.5 citations respectively for the same interventions. Our results show that promoting one's work on ArXiv or X has a large impact on the number of citations, as well as the number of influential citations computed by Semantic Scholar, and thereby on the career of researchers. These effects are present also for publications in physics, but they are relatively smaller. The larger relative effect sizes, effects of promotion accumulating over time, and elevated unpredictability of the number of citations in computer science than in physics suggest a greater role of world-of-mouth spreading in computer science than in physics. We discuss the far-reaching implications of these findings for future scientific publishing systems and measures of scientific impact.