From Insurgent to Incumbent: Ideology, Rebel Governance, and Statebuilding after Rebel Victory in Civil Wars

Why do some victorious rebels invest in statebuilding and public goods, while others prioritize private enrichment? I theorize that post-victory governance is rooted in rebels’ pre-victory ideologies, distinguishing between rebels’ ideologies on two dimensions: how much they aim to transform society (programmatic or opportunistic) and the proportion of the population they wish to benefit (inclusive or exclusive). Programmatic transformation and delivering inclusive benefits require building infrastructural power and expanding state reach, while opportunistic use of power for exclusive, private gains does not necessitate non-coercive power. Fieldwork-based case studies of three victorious rebel organizations–the more programmatic-inclusive FSLN in Nicaragua, the more opportunistic-exclusive NPFL in Liberia, and the middle-ground NRM in Uganda–provide support for the theory, and the conclusion addresses implications for scholarship and policy.