Atmospheric Fronts Drive Future Changes in Extratropical Extreme Precipitation

Abstract Extreme precipitation is expected to increase at a faster rate with climate change than the global average precipitation. Given that most of the extreme precipitation in the extratropics is associated with cyclones, fronts, and moisture transport axes, we analyze the changes in precipitation characteristics associated with these weather features, as well as their combinations, in a climate model (CESM2‐LE) for the period 1950–2100. We find that extreme precipitation associated with fronts increases substantially in the extratropics. Extreme precipitation associated with non‐frontal conditions, on the other hand, does not increase and even decreases in some regions. Hence, atmospheric fronts are the main driver of future extreme precipitation changes in the extratropics.