Spatio-Temporal Evolution Pattern and Driving Forces of Carbon Lock-In in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Addressing carbon lock-in is essential for facilitating economic transformation and sustainable, low-carbon growth in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. This study establishes a multidimensional evaluation framework to assess carbon lock-in levels and explores its spatio-temporal evolution as well as key drivers within the YRD urban agglomeration. Findings indicate a general decline in carbon lock-in across the region, with diminishing disparities among cities. While industrial lock-in, technological lock-in, and institutional lock-in have shown a weakening trend, social behavioral lock-in has intensified. Initially, higher levels of carbon lock-in were concentrated in less developed cities, though this concentration has steadily decreased, whereas more developed cities consistently exhibited lower lock-in levels. The carbon intensity of fixed assets and carbon emission intensity have emerged as the primary barrier factors contributing to carbon lock-in. Additionally, socio-economic factors and digital technology innovations are the main influences on carbon lock-in. These insights provide guidance for policy efforts to mitigate carbon lock-in and support for advancing green integrated development strategies in the YRD region.