Assessment of Landscape Risks and Ecological Security Patterns in the Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China

Ecological risk refers to the potential threat that landscape changes pose to ecosystem structure, function, and service sustainability, while ecological security emphasizes the ability of regional ecosystems to maintain stability and support human well-being. Developing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) provides a strategic approach to balance ecological protection and sustainable development. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of landscape ecological risk in the Tarim Basin and surrounding urban areas in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, from 2000 to 2020. Using a combination of the InVEST model, landscape connectivity index, and circuit theory-based modeling, we identify ecological source areas and simulate ecological corridors. Ecological source areas are categorized by their ecological value and connectivity: primary sources represent high ecological value and strong connectivity, secondary sources have moderate ecological significance, and tertiary sources are of relatively lower priority but still vital for regional integrity. The results show a temporal trend of ecological risk declining between 2000 and 2010, followed by a moderate increase from 2010 to 2020. High-risk zones are concentrated in the central Tarim Basin, reflecting intensified land-use pressures and weak ecological resilience. The delineated ecological protection zones include 61,702.9 km2 of primary, 146,802.5 km2 of secondary, and 36,141.2 km2 of tertiary ecological source areas. In total, 95 ecological corridors (23 primary, 37 secondaries, and 35 tertiary) were identified, along with 48 pinch points and 56 barrier points that require priority attention for ecological restoration. Valuable areas refer to those with high ecological connectivity and service provision potential, while vulnerable areas are characterized by high ecological risk and landscape fragmentation. This study provides a comprehensive framework for constructing ESPs in arid inland basins and offers practical insights for ecological planning in desert–oasis environments.