Pathways to 30 × 30: Evidence-Based Lessons from Global Case Studies in Biodiversity Conservation

The global 30 × 30 initiative, endorsed by 188 countries, aims to expand terrestrial and marine protected areas to cover 30% of the planet by 2030. This study utilizes newly available species-occurrence maps from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to identify conservation priorities in 10 countries across Latin America (Brazil, Costa Rica, and Ecuador), Africa (Cameroon, South Africa, and Madagascar), and the Asia–Pacific region (Papua New Guinea, Philippines, India, and China). By incorporating diverse taxa—including vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants—the analysis ensures equitable species representation in conservation planning. A spatial prioritization algorithm is employed to pinpoint areas where new protected regions can address biodiversity gaps, with a particular focus on endemic and unprotected species. The results highlight significant variation in initial conservation conditions, including existing protection levels and spatial distribution of unprotected species. Countries with high spatial clustering of unprotected species achieve substantial protection gains with modest protected-area expansions, while others may require exceeding the 30% target to ensure comprehensive biodiversity coverage. The study underscores the importance of localized conservation strategies within the broader global framework, demonstrating how targeted spatial planning can enhance biodiversity outcomes and support the equitable implementation of the 30 × 30 commitment.