Oil and Gas Fire Risk Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree and Bayesian Network

Oil and gas fires are frequent disasters that occur during oil and gas storage and transportation.In order to prevent the occurrence of oil and gas fires and reduce human and material losses, this paper studied the risk prediction of oil and gas fires based on the fusion of fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) and Bayesian network (BN) algorithm.Firstly, by conducting statistical analysis of accidents, 9 causal factors leading to oil and gas fires were identified.A fuzzy fault tree was established with oil and gas fire accidents as the top event, management issues, oil product issues, protection failures, and hazardous states as intermediate events, and 9 causal factors as basic events.The logical network connections between the fault trees were utilized to organize the causal relationships between each causal factor, and mapping relationships were used to connect the fault tree with Bayesian networks.Finally, combined with expert evaluation, fuzzy processing was performed to obtain the probability of occurrence for each root node (causal factor), and then the prior probabilities of intermediate nodes and leaf nodes were obtained through logical operations and Bayesian network full probability formulas.Through backward inference analysis, it was found that the posterior probability of the intermediate event "dangerous state" was relatively high.Combined with sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that the fundamental cause of the intermediate event "dangerous state" is the basic event "equipment damage", and the fundamental cause of the intermediate event "protection failure" is the basic event "protective system failure".Therefore, it is recommended to take measures such as regular maintenance and inspection, installation of fault monitoring and early warning systems, backup equipment, backup power supply, development of emergency plans and training, and regular drills and evaluations.These measures help to improve the reliability and stability of protective systems and reduce the potential risk of oil and gas fires.