Predicting failures of a marine power plant using a convolution operation

The possibility of using the convolution operation to predict failures of marine mechanical installations is investigated. Errors of shipboard personnel that threaten the safety of navigation are structured according to the functions of the International Convention STCW-78. An engine room specialist is considered as an ergatic element of an ergatic system. Incorrect functioning of the specified element, taken as a dysfunction, leads to the ship's refusal to leave the port or to a breakdown of the ship's mechanical installation. Regular connections are established between the inconsistencies in the condition of ship's equipment identified by port control with the current regulatory requirements and violations of these requirements that caused a marine accident. The statistics of critical inconsistencies in the ship's technical means, which caused the refusal of the ship to leave the port for the period from 2011 to 2019, were studied. During the same period, marine accidents were analyzed for crew violations of competence standards structured according to the functions of the STCW-78 Convention. One dysfunction has been accepted as the accounting unit for the violation of the standard, which means that the seafarer fails to perform or incorrectly performs his prescribed duties on time. The specialist of the ship's technical service is considered as an integral ergatic element in the complex ergatechnical system “marine vessel”. Statistics of detentions and accidents of Russian vessels in the Far Eastern seas for 2011-2019. it is structured in the dysfunction of the ergatic element. The dysfunctions of the STCW-78 functions of the same name have been transformed into series of sequences. Using the operation of dysfunction reduction “marine mechanical installations”, an interval forecast of failures of marine power plants was obtained for the specified period, consistent with real safety indicators.