Analysis of Intra-Annual Variability of Heat Fluxes in the North Atlantic Based on Approximation of Trajectories of the Stochastic Diffusion Process

To analyze heat fluxes, observational data for 1979-2018 were used for the North Atlantic. The spatiotemporal variability of the total heat flux was modeled by a stochastic diffusion process. The coefficients of the stochastic differential equation were estimated by using nonparametric statistics. Previously, the existence and uniqueness of a solution in the strong sense of the stochastic differential equation generated by the constructed diffusion process was proven when Kolmogorov's conditions were met. In this work, the coefficients of the equation were approximated in time by trigonometric polynomials, the amplitudes and phases of which depended on the flow values. Using a given series of 40 years in length from 1979 to 2018, spatial maps and time curves were constructed. The results are shown for 1999 and 2018, and their comparative analysis is also carried out. Numerical calculations were realized on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer of the Lomonosov Moscow State University.