Are Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas Effective in Conserving the Habitat of the Glacial Relict Three-toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Piciformes: Picidae) in the Present and Future?

The three-toed woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is one of the rarest bird species in Serbia. Its distribution is limited to high-altitude forests in South-Western Serbia, where it represents a glacial relict. As a habitat specialist, it is vulnerable to climate change impacts. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas in conserving suitable habitats for P. tridactylus in the present and the future (2050) under the moderate SSP2-4.5 and extreme SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. To accomplish this, a gap analysis was performed in QGIS by overlapping species distribution maps in the present and the future with the distribution of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas in South-Western Serbia. Future projections were created using the warm/dry global climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL, which had the greatest negative impact on the studied species and could, therefore, provide insight into the effectiveness of the Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas under the high climatic pressure. The results indicated that this network would encompass > 90% of species suitable habitats by 2050. Nevertheless, moderately and highly suitable habitats for this species were shown to have a drastic reduction and/or a complete loss by 2050, both within and outside the network, indicating that it will probably become less suitable for P. tridactylus in the future. To mitigate the expected changes, it is necessary to provide adequate protection measure now by preserving the suitable habitats for this species. Currently, there are still 52.41 km2 of moderately suitable habitats outside the network that should become conservation priority. Given that Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas in Serbia face various threats, I recommend an adaptive management measures as a way to maintain the habitat of this endangered woodpecker in Serbia.