How Service Exclusion Affects Rural Depopulation. An Approach Based on Structural Equation Modelling

ABSTRACT This paper explores the relationship between service exclusion and the depopulation phenomenon. To achieve this, we apply structural equation modelling (SEM) to evaluate the lack of development of primary services (healthcare, education, social services, commerce, restaurants and bars, as well as Internet access) at the municipal level, considering their relationship with population loss and ageing—two of the most defining aspects of depopulation. Additionally, using cluster analysis techniques, we classify municipalities based on their degree of service exclusion, identifying distinct typologies and highlighting the most critical service deficits within each group. The study focuses on the Spanish region of Aragon, a striking example of severe rural population loss and pronounced ageing within the European context. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in both depopulation patterns and service exclusion. This heterogeneity highlights the need to propose specific rural policy measures adapted to the peculiarities of each territory to contribute to more resilient rural communities.