Simulation-Based Assessment of Urban Pollution in Almaty: Influence of Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

Background: Air pollution is a persistent and critical challenge for Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city. The city’s unique topographical and meteorological conditions—being located in a mountain basin with dense urban development—restrict natural ventilation and contribute to frequent exceedances of air quality standards. These factors make accurate assessment and management of atmospheric pollution particularly urgent for the region. Aim: This study aims to develop and apply a novel, high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model to analyze the spatial distribution of key atmospheric indicators—air velocity, temperature, and pollutant concentrations in Almaty. The goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how meteorological and urban factors influence air quality, with a focus on both horizontal and vertical stratification. Methods: A three-dimensional computational model was constructed, integrating real meteorological data and detailed urban topography. The model solves the compressible Navier–Stokes, energy, and pollutant transport equations using the finite volume method over a 1000 × 1000 × 500 m domain. Meteorological fields are synthesized along all spatial axes to account for vortex structures, urban heat islands, and stratification effects. This approach enables the simulation of atmospheric parameters with unprecedented spatial resolution for Almaty. Results: The simulation reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in atmospheric parameters. Wind velocity ranges from 0.31 to 5.76 m/s (mean: 2.14 m/s), temperature varies between 12.03 °C and 19.47 °C (mean: 16.12 °C), and pollutant concentrations fluctuate from 5.02 to 102.35 μg/m3 (mean: 44.87 μg/m3). Notably, pollutant levels in the city center exceed those at the periphery by more than two-fold (68.23 μg/m3, 29.14 μg/m3), and vertical stratification leads to a marked decrease in concentrations with altitude. These findings provide, for the first time, a comprehensive and quantitative picture of air quality dynamics in Almaty. Conclusion: The developed model advances the scientific understanding of urban air pollution in complex terrains and offers practical tools for city planners and policymakers. By identifying pollution hotspots and elucidating the influence of meteorological factors, the model supports the optimization of urban infrastructure, zoning, and environmental monitoring systems. This research lays the groundwork for evidence-based strategies to mitigate air pollution and improve public health in Almaty and similar urban environments.