Different Strokes: Indonesian Statecraft in the North Natuna Sea

In recent years, tensions in the South China Sea have intensified with overlapping claims and strategic rivalries. China's expansive nine-dash line has even led to repeated incursions into Indonesia's exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea, challenging Jakarta's maritime sovereignty and non-claimant status. This article examines Indonesia's policy response during President Joko Widodo's second term in office. While structural accounts of power distribution, regional balancing, and economic interdependence help explain the strategic behaviour of middle powers amid great power competition, they do not fully capture the specificity of Indonesia's approach. Instead, this study highlights the influence of domestic politics, institutional contestation, and competing priorities among state actors. Based on fieldwork interviews with key informants, the article offers an in-depth analysis of the domestic and institutional drivers behind Jakarta's strategy in the North Natuna Sea, illustrating how Indonesian statecraft navigates complex internal dynamics and external maritime pressures in Southeast Asia.