A Dynamic Assessment Model of Distributed Photovoltaic Carrying Capacity Based on Improved DeepLabv3+ and Game-Theoretic Combination Weighting

The traditional carrying capacity assessment method fails to effectively quantify the difference in spatial distribution of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) resources and ignores the temporal fluctuation of PV output and load demand, as well as the temporal and spatial matching characteristics of sources and loads. This leads to problems such as a disconnect between the assessment and the actual grid acceptance capacity and insufficient dynamic adaptability. In response to the above issues, this paper proposes a dynamic assessment model for distributed photovoltaic carrying capacity based on the combination of improved DeepLabv3+ and game-theoretic weighted assignment. First, the DeepLabv3+ model was improved by integrating the Efficient Channel Attention (ECA) mechanism and the strip pooling (SP) module to enhance roof recognition accuracy. Ablation experiments showed that the mIoU increased to 77.53%, 6.29% higher than the original model. The simulation results in the summer scenario demonstrated that, with the optimal coordination of STMF and scene scoring, the comprehensive carrying coefficient reached 0.73. Next, a photovoltaic carrying capacity evaluation system was established, considering the source, grid, and load perspectives, with dynamic evaluation using a game-theory-based weighting method. Finally, a comprehensive carrying coefficient was introduced, accounting for the spatiotemporal match between photovoltaic output and load, leading to the development of a distributed photovoltaic carrying capacity model. The case study results show that, in summer, due to the optimal coordination of STMF and scene scoring, the comprehensive carrying coefficient reaches 0.73. With a total PV access capacity of 6.48 MW, all node voltages remain within limits, verifying the model’s effectiveness in grid adaptability.