Machine Learning for Precision Agriculture: Predicting Persimmon Peak Harvest Dates and Yield Using Meteorological Data

The acute shortage of agricultural labor necessitates the development of predictive models to optimize farm operations. This study investigates the effectiveness of artificial-intelligence-driven models to accurately forecast the timing and yield of persimmon harvests, using meteorological data alongside historical harvest records. An artificial neural network was designed to estimate peak harvest dates by analyzing key meteorological variables. The model was trained and validated using data from the JA Nara Prefecture Nishiyoshino Sorting Facility and Nara Prefecture Agriculture Research and Development Center. Its reliability was confirmed based on mean absolute error, demonstrating the ability to make predictions with an accuracy of approximately three days. Additionally, extreme gradient boosting models were developed to predict yields, incorporating elevation data to refine predictions at the field scale. The model was trained and validated using data from fields cultivated in the Gojo-Yoshino region. The effectiveness of these models was evaluated using root mean square error, demonstrating an improvement in prediction accuracy of up to 20% with the inclusion of elevation data, illustrating their capability to effectively capture yield variations across different orchards. These models can significantly improve labor management, harvest scheduling, and overall productivity within the realm of smart agriculture.