Modelling hydrogen adoption in the United States aviation industry through integration of green hydrogen hubs

Novel policies are required to mitigate rising levels of carbon emissions generated by the aviation industry. One solution being developed in the United States is investment into ‘green hydrogen hubs’ which aim to centralise clean hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure. The aim of this study is to assess the viability of the uptake of hydrogen as an aircraft fuel through the application of these hydrogen hubs. A multi-step methodology is designed to provide different technology pathways from the uptake of hydrogen fuelled aircraft. First, k-means clustering is performed to identify suitable airports and routes in the US domestic market where hydrogen fuels may become most easily implemented based on economic and geographical factors. Second, scenario modelling is undertaken to forecast the uptake of hydrogen air transport movements between airport route pairs in order to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The cluster analysis identifies 33 airports that are best aligned to provide hydrogen capabilities as a result of their proximity to hydrogen hubs and their connectivity to other airports within the hubs. A linear growth function applied to the uptake of hydrogen fuelled flights illustrates the difficulty of achieving a total conversion by 2050 in high and low demand growth scenarios. This suggests that whilst hydrogen can have a role to play in achieving net-zero by 2050, it may not be able to act as a lone solution for decarbonisation. It is recommended that other regions aiming to investigate the deployment of hydrogen within aviation should still utilise the proposed hydrogen hubs as a policy template to maximise the potential for hydrogen to become viable. Additionally, the airports identified through this analysis should be further studied to establish their specific challenges to be addressed in order to achieve readiness to adopt hydrogen.