Vicious cycle or virtuous feedback? Revisiting the impact of climate risk on agricultural carbon emissions in China

Effective climate governance and low-carbon agriculture constitute pressing global issues. While the promoting impact of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) on climate risk has been widely acknowledged, the reverse impact of climate risk on ACE remains insufficiently understood. Hence, this study empirically investigated this reverse impact using balanced panel data from 30 provinces and municipalities in China (2007-2022). Results demonstrate rather than forming a vicious cycle, climate risk has virtuous feedback on ACE from a social system perspective. An informed comprehension and proactive utilization of climate risk can prevent humanity from descending into deeper realms of uncertainty. Additionally, climate policy uncertainty associated with insufficient confidence, limited capacity, and ineffective regulation significantly moderates this anticipated negative impact. Heterogeneity regarding new agricultural business entities is apparent, with technological progress in low-carbon agriculture being the critical mechanism. These findings underscore the necessity for governments to enhance the application of climate change mitigation measures and develop forward-looking climate policies to accelerate the transition toward sustainable development. • Climate risk has virtuous feedback on agricultural carbon emissions from a social system perspective. • Climate policy uncertainty negatively moderates the carbon reduction efficacy of climate risk. • New agricultural business entities exhibit abnormal latency in spearheading mitigation initiatives. • Technological progress in low-carbon agriculture is the critical mechanism.