Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil

This study relates spatial measures of forest cover with measures of the spatial distribution of the population in the 31 Extractive Reserves (ERs) within the Amazon biome, Brazil, in 2010. We integrated layers of information on the ERs, forest cover, and spatial distribution of the population in a Geographic Information System. We produced 24 variables in three groups: population; external conditions (both as predictor variables); and land cover (predicted variables). We assessed the correlation between predictor variables and forest cover and fragmentation variables. Linear regression analyses based on cooperative game theory were conducted to evaluate the significance of the predictor variables in explaining the number of forest fragments and the percentage of forest cover in the models. We found that the size, concentration, dispersion, and geometry of the population contributed to a better understanding of deforestation and the landscape structure. However, forest fragmentation and forest cover extent are not necessarily defined by the same population aspects. The models suggest that forest cover change is primarily driven by population concentration within the ER, while forest fragmentation is strongly shaped by population dispersion. External conditions such as surrounding forests and protected areas also played a significant role. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating forest spatial distribution measures into Population and Environment research, going beyond the usual focus on forest extent. Additionally, it highlights the value of working with spatial demographic variables, extending beyond the conventional approach centered on population size.