Applying Alex Broadbent’s Reverse Counterfactual Theory to the Outbreak of World War I: A Novel Causal Analysis

Abstract This article applies Alex Broadbent’s reverse counterfactual theory of causation to the causes of World War I (WWI), providing a novel framework for historical causal analysis. According to Broadbent’s theory, which differs radically from the more familiar account of David Lewis, an event Q is a cause of event R only if, without R, Q would not have occurred. The hypothesis posited here is that understanding the causes of WWI lies in identifying them based on a well-motivated causal philosophical framework. After showing that Broadbent’s theory is prima facie plausible, this study employs it to re-evaluate the extensively debated causes of WWI. Through doing so, it becomes evident that the Russian mobilization, rather than other frequently cited events, was the pivotal cause of Germany’s declaration of war and, consequently, the broader conflict. This analysis not only simplifies the complex causal reasoning process but also offers fresh insights into the historical narrative of WWI as well as reveals how a philosophical account of causation can have a weighty bearing on debates in social science. The implications of this approach extend beyond historical inquiry, suggesting broader applications for reverse counterfactual theory in understanding causation in complex events.