Coordinating high-quality economic development and water resources carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Basin cities: Achieving sustainable development goals

53 Yangtze River Basin cities (YRBC), categorized into 26 mainstream cities (MC), 13 tributary cities (TC), and 14 linking lake cities (LLC). The relationship between high-quality economic development (HED) and water resources carrying capacity (WRCC), along with its key factors, has not been systematically studied. Few studies have differentiated YRBC into MC, TC, and LLC for comparative analysis. This study applies the CRITIC-TOPSIS method and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to evaluate the CCD between HED and WRCC. Additionally, the fixed effect Tobit model is used to identify the key factors influencing CCD across MC, TC, and LLC. The research found, (1) The CCD is being upgraded towards intermediate coordination. (2) The CCD in the middle and upper reaches is surpassing that of the lower reaches; the cold and hot spot pattern has shifted from "central cold, eastern hot" to "western cold, central hot". (3) The key positive factors for MC, TC, and LLC are regional aggregation capacity (RAC), technology investment level, and economic development level, respectively; the key negative factor for TC and LLC is government general public budget capacity and RAC. These conclusions provide a basis for the differentiated improvement strategies for MC, TC, and LLC, offering valuable insights for the sustainable development of cities in similar river basins globally. ● The coupling coordination degree is being upgraded towards intermediate coordination. ● The cold and hot spot pattern has shifted from "central cold, eastern hot" to "western cold, central hot. ● The key positive factors are regional aggregation capacity, technology investment level, and economic development level. ● The key negative factor are government general public budget capacity and regional aggregation capacity.