Forecasting COVID-19, influenza, and RSV hospitalizations over winter 2023–4 in England
These real-time winter infectious disease forecasts produced by the UK Health Security Agency for healthcare system managers played an informative role in mitigating seasonal pressures. The models were delivered regularly and shared widely across the system to key users. This was achieved by producing reliable, fast, and epidemiologically informed ensembles of models, though a higher diversity of model approaches could have improved forecast accuracy.
Authors
- Maria Tang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9671-8302)
- Thomas Ward (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8801-747X)
- Jonathon Mellor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8743-0817)
- Sarah R Deeny (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5994-1583)
- Steven Riley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7904-4804)
- Owen Jones (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8410-9585)
Institutions
- Imperial College London (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Epidemiology
- Published
- 2025-04-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaf066
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 4.10