Effect of Non-Oil Exports on Economic Growth: Role of Government Policies

This study investigated the effect of non-oil exports on Nigeria’s economic growth, with a particular focus on the role of government policies in enhancing export performance. Amid ongoing efforts to diversify the Nigerian economy away from oil dependence, the research disaggregates non-oil exports into three major sectors: agricultural exports, manufactured exports, and solid mineral exports. Using annual time series data from 2000 to 2023 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study finds that agricultural and manufactured exports have a statistically significant and positive impact on economic growth in both the short and long run. While solid mineral exports also show a positive contribution, their impact is relatively weaker. The findings further reveal that government policies—such as export incentives, industrial development programs, and regulatory frameworks—play a critical role in facilitating non-oil export growth. The study concludes that sustained government intervention, improved infrastructure, and value-added production are essential for strengthening non-oil exports and achieving long-term economic diversification in Nigeria. One key recommendation is that the government should intensify investment in rural and trade-related infrastructure to support agricultural exports and improve market access.