Evaluation of climatic trends in Ho Chi Minh City for dengue fever outbreak forecasting using non-parametric statistical methods

Abstract This study evaluates the trends in temperature and rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the context of global climate change. It utilizes data from 13 monitoring stations during the period from 2015 to 2022, employing non-parametric statistical methods such as Mann-Kendall, Modified Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimation, ITA and Pettitt. The results indicate an increase in rainfall at all stations, with most abrupt changes occurring in 2020. Maximum temperatures show a slight decrease, with sudden changes noted in July 2020 (continuous month) and October 2020 (continuous week). Temperature amplitude also slightly decreased, with change points in April 2019 (continuous month) and June 2020 (continuous week). Minimum temperatures do not exhibit a clear trend. The study contributes further evidence of the impact of climate change on meteorological factors, supporting dengue fever outbreak forecasting and effective response measures.