Estimating Day Old Chick (DOC) Final Stock (FS) Broiler Demand Based on Broiler Meat Consumption Using System Dynamics Model

Abstract The poultry industry plays a vital role in the Indonesian economy. This subsector fulfills around 65% of Indonesia’s animal protein demand, provides employment for 12 million individuals, and contributes to an estimated economic value of over 34 billion USD. However, over the past five years, many chicken farmers have gone out of business due to difficulties generating profits. These challenges arise from an imbalance between supply and demand, which tends toward oversupply. As a result, live broiler prices at the farm level fluctuate and often remain below the farm gate reference price set by the government. Broiler price fluctuations operate within a feedback-driven cycle where rising prices encourage production increases, leading to excess supply and subsequent price drops. Given this dynamic interplay over time, system dynamics modeling is well-suited for analyzing and understanding these fluctuations through simulations and scenario analysis. This research explores how managing the DOC FS supply can impact live broiler availability and pricing and how government policies can effectively control these factors. The results show that managing the amount of DOC FS at the farm level to reduce broiler price fluctuations is very important to balance broiler meat production and demand, which will reduce price fluctuations.