Evaluating the impact of climate change on crop productivity in the Ba river basin, Gia Lai province, Vietnam

Abstract In this study, a modeling approach was utilized to simulate the productivity of several crops in the Ba River basin. Results indicated that Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has the ability to simulate crop productivity relatively well in the study area. Crop productivity was forecast to have an increasing tendency in the SSPs 1-2.6 scenario, except sugarcane, and a reverse trend in the SSPs 5-8.5 scenario, except coffee trees. Comparing two climate change scenarios, the change in coffee trees and sugarcane productivity is expected to fluctuate significantly in the 2080s period, while rice productivity is predicted to change dramatically in both the 2050s and 2080s periods. Considering each period of the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for climate change scenarios, crop productivity is predicted to be different for each crop in a particular period. Evidence reveals that meteorological factors, including precipitation and temperature, may have a significant impact on crop productivity, especially the temperature factor. These remarkable results can assist local government in guiding the planning and development of crop types suitable to local conditions in the future.