Analysis and prediction of land use changes in Soc Trang city, Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Abstract The article analyzes and predicts land-use changes using the integrated model of logistic regression and Markov chain in Soc Trang city, Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. The actual land use maps in 2014 and 2019 serve as the basis for the land use simulation in 2024. After evaluating the model accuracy through contrasting the simulation map with actual map in 2024 utilizing the Kappa coefficient, land-use prediction maps in 2029 and 2034 are created. The results show that Soc Trang City’s land use will significantly change in 2034. Agricultural land is forecast to continue to decrease sharply due to the development of the processing industry and the urbanization process. The facts on land use changes serve as the foundation for developing local land-use policies that meet sustainable development goals.