Forecasting The Future Characteristics of Freight Cars Based on Statistical Information

Abstract The research focuses on forecasting prospective technical characteristics of freight cars that meet the evolving demands of the modern railway industry. An analysis of the structure of the existing freight car fleet on Ukrainian railways highlights a significant need for specialized rolling stock for transporting grain crops. Under current circumstances, identifying methodologies for determining the technical characteristics of freight cars has become essential. One of the most relevant and effective approaches involves forecasting key technical characteristics based on the modelling processes of freight cars under limited resource conditions, employing a continuous exponential function. Using the growth rate function of the projected freight car metric, a logistic characteristic is determined, which assumes an exponential form under unlimited resources and a linear form under constrained conditions. Based on the current needs of the domestic railway freight car fleet, the forecasting of prospective characteristics will be conducted using the example of grain hopper cars and relying on statistical information. According to the proposed methodology and based on the obtained data, the expected value of the specific volume, which is the ratio of the freight car body to its load capacity, was determined, taking into account the degree of reliability of the forecast and the calculation of the forecast error. The calculations demonstrate high accuracy of the forecast achieved by this methodology. As a result, it becomes possible to evaluate the required freight car characteristics for the projected year with a high degree of reliability.