Future wave energy evolution in the Bay of Biscay for different converters

Future SSP5-85 IPCC scenario of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 future projections (2015-2100) of wave data – significant wave height and wave peak period – are used to implement them in the power matrix of different wave energy converters: floating body, floating oscillating water column, and oyster device. An annual and seasonal study has been carried out in the nearest grid point to Mutriku’s oscillating water column wave energy plant, a referential real wave energy converter integrated in a breakwater. Overall, the results show a negative trend evolution both in the Wave Energy Flux resource and in the production of the Wave Energy Converters. Because of their productive results, the Reference Model 3 and the Reference Model 5 wave energy converters have been selected for further production analysis. Most results have shown a downward trend both in the physical parameters and in the energy production of the wave energy converters and the wave energy flux. However, the future trends are not as strong as the past historical trends found in the North Atlantic in general, showing an inflection point in the climate change effects for marine energy environments. This inflection should be considered for possible smaller energy production, but this effect does not mean that there will be a relaxing of extreme energetic events. • Future wave energy trends in the Bay of Biscay were analyzed (2015-2100). • A non-parametric Theil–Sen estimator was used to assess long-term power trends. • Results show a long-term decline in wave energy, with stronger reductions in summer. • Projected trends suggest increasing seasonal variability in future wave power. • Simulated WECs show a declining energy output.