Forecasting New Student Admissions at Muhammadiyah Elementary School Metro Using the Weighted Moving Average Method

SD Muhammadiyah Metro Lampung was established in 1968 with the Decree of the Muhammadiyah Education, Teaching, and Culture Council Number 664/I-057/LP-68/1977. Since then, this institution has emphasized the importance of providing quality education and creating an environment that supports the development of students. The purpose of this study is to predict the acceptance of new students in the coming period, so that it can be the basis for compiling a more appropriate educational planning strategy that is in accordance with real needs. To realize all of this, the main analysis tool is the Weighted Moving Average (WMA). This method is different from other modeling methods such as exponential smoothing and ARIMA because this method provides greater weight based on current data, so that estimates are more sensitive to current trends and more credible as a decision-making tool. The results of the WMA forecast provide schools with the opportunity to estimate the need for resources needed (including teaching staff, supporting facilities, and classroom allocation) to ensure that the education process is running well and correctly. In addition, this technique is a way to assess developing or abolishing admission policies. However, forecasts are only as good as historical data and cannot predict the presence of external factors that affect outcomes