Predicting COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions Among UK Parents Using Protection Motivation Theory

Parents’ intentions to vaccinate their children against COVID-19 remain a critical factor in achieving sufficient immunization coverage. Understanding the psychological and social factors that influence vaccination decisions is essential for developing effective public health strategies. This study applied Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to examine predictors of COVID-19 vaccination intention among parents of young children in the UK. Key constructs of PMT, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal were evaluated alongside sociodemographic variables to identify the strongest determinants of parental vaccine acceptance. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among 774 parents and guardians of children aged 0–6 years in the UK. Participants responded to a validated PMT questionnaire measuring intention, perceived severity, susceptibility, self-efficacy, response efficacy, response costs, intrapersonal characteristics, and past experience. Sociodemographic data were also collected. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relative importance of these factors. The results showed that disease severity, intrapersonal characteristics, past experience, response efficacy, and response costs were the most influential predictors of COVID-19 vaccination intention. While sociodemographic factors such as age and gender had some predictive value, the PMT constructs, particularly severity and efficacy-related measures, provided more robust insights into parental decision-making processes. The final regression model explained 35.5% of the variance in vaccination intention. This study highlights the importance of PMT constructs in understanding parental COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Interventions should focus on increasing awareness of disease severity, enhancing confidence in vaccine efficacy, and addressing perceived response costs. Public health campaigns tailored to these psychological factors, coupled with transparent communication from trusted healthcare providers, are likely to be more effective in reducing vaccine hesitancy among parents in the UK.