THE FACTOR OF THREATS AND DANGERS IN INTERNATIONAL TOURISM AND ITS INFLUENCE ON INBOUND TOURISM FLOWS

The article examines the influence of the factor of threats and dangers on international tourist arrivals for particular countries and for the world in general. In particular, the influence of this factor on changes in the dynamics of international tourist arrivals, which were observed due to significant negative growth to the previous year, was revealed. It was established which events that had the nature of a threat or danger, influenced these changes, and also clarified which of these events had a local, regional and global nature. The study is based on the methodological principles of induction using methods of mathematical statistics, in particular the analysis of time series. It is assumed that the events that had the character of a threat or danger manifested themselves in the time series due to significant negative increases in international tourist arrivals recorded until the previous year. The study is based on the statistical indicators of accounting for inbound tourist flows proposed by the UNWTO – international tourist arrivals. Statistical data are also taken from UNWTO sources. It has been established that the factor of threats and dangers affects international tourism through terrorist acts, military conflicts, pandemics, and natural disasters. It is confirmed that these events manifest themselves in the time series of international tourism arrivals due to significant negative increases compared to the previous year. Among the terrorist threats, the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 was the most extensive in terms of consequences for international tourism. The USA suffered the most from these events, which in 2003 compared to the millennium, lost 20% of international tourists. The war in Iraq in 2003 also had a negative impact on inbound tourist flows to the USA. Although the terrorist attacks took place in the United States, they were related to air passenger transport, which is the leading international tourism. Because of this, the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 had global consequences. For example, in Australia after the terrorist attacks of September 2001 a three-year trend with barely noticeable negative dynamics emerged, and the second Australian airline "Ansett" went bankrupt. The factors of threats and dangers, which had the character of a military conflict, had a significant impact on the international tourism of Ukraine. Initially, it had a local significance, in particular, in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of russia's military aggression in Donbas, the number of international tourists in Ukraine decreased to 12.7 million, which was half as much as compared to the previous year. In 2022, after russia's full-scale invasion to Ukraine, this factor began to affect international tourism at the regional level. At that time, international tourist flows to Ukraine decreased by 45% and reached a minimum of 2.173 million arrivals, which was less than 9% of the number of international tourists who visited Ukraine in 2013. Atypical pneumonia (SARS) had regional impact on the dynamics of international tourism in 2003. The Asia-Pacific region was most affected by it, where the number of arrivals decreased by 9%; and Southeast Asia, from where the epidemic spread, showed a double-digit negative growth (-13.7%). COVID-19 has caused a global, unprecedented decline in international tourism across all tourist regions of the world, due to lockdowns and restrictions on international travel. According to the UNWTO, in 2020 the number of international tourists decreased by 72% compared to 2019. This led to huge economic losses in the tourism industry. Threats and dangers in international tourism also have a natural origin. In particular, the reduction of international tourist arrivals to Turkey by 23% was associated with the devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake that occurred on August 17, 1999 near the shores of the Sea of Marmara. Due to the earthquake of December 26, 2004 in the Indian Ocean, the west coast of Thailand was covered by a tsunami, which particularly affected the popular tourist island of Phuket. For 1996-2008 the dynamics of international tourism in the Bahamas, in addition to the reduction due to the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, depended on such natural catastrophic phenomena as hurricanes. Key words: international tourism market, tourist arrivals, tourism factor, threats and dangers, time series.