Mapping Multiple Wild Pig Species’ Population Dynamics in Southeast Asia During the African Swine Fever Outbreak (2018–2024)

ABSTRACT The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population‐level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in the region for native pig species, we gathered qualitative information on wild pig population dynamics in Southeast Asia between 2018 and 2024 from 88 expert elicitation questionnaires representing sites in 11 countries. Peak reported population declines occurred in 2021 and 2022, with more than half of respondents reporting declining wild pig populations, far higher than in earlier years. The reported declines waned to 44.23% in 2024, whereas simultaneously, the number of populations reported to be “increasing” increased from 11.3%–13.2% in 2019–2022 to 28.9% in 2024. These reports suggest that the ASF outbreak may have peaked for wild boars and bearded pigs in mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with some subsequent recovery. However, the disease is still expanding into the ranges of island endemic species, such as new reports for the Sulawesi warty pig ( Sus celebensis ) in September of 2024. Island endemics remain particularly vulnerable to extinction from ASF and require urgent monitoring and conservation action.

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Publication Details

Journal
Conservation Letters
Published
2025-05-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.13105
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.71

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article

Mapping Multiple Wild Pig Species’ Population Dynamics in Southeast Asia During the African Swine Fever Outbreak (2018–2024)

Al John C. Cabanas, Zoë E. Lieb, Andrew J. Hearn, Dusit Ngoprasert et al.
3 citations
Conservation Letters
Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
5.71
article

Mapping Multiple Wild Pig Species’ Population Dynamics in Southeast Asia During the African Swine Fever Outbreak (2018–2024)

Al John C. Cabanas, Zoë E. Lieb, Andrew J. Hearn, Dusit Ngoprasert, Romain Legrand, Benoît Goossens, Jatna Supriatna, Jedediah F. Brodie, Xiaoyang Song, Thiemo Braasch, Carl Træholt, Emilia A. Lastica‐Ternura, Jonathan H. Moore, Pablo Sinovas, Markus Handschuh, Ronglarp Sukmasuang, Laura Berman, Matthew J. Struebig, Badrul Azhar, Adi Shabrani, T. Ulmar Grafe, Jayasilan Mohd‐Azlan, Mohammad Aliyuddin Bin Jaini, Agus Sudibyo Jati, Olivia Daniel, Radinal Radinal, Sheherazade Sheherazade, Nay Myo Shwe, Marc Ancrenaz, Jaimee Wheelhouse, Nicolas J. Deere, Karmila Parakkasi, Katie Spencer, Robert M. Ewers, Apinya Saisamorn, Matthew Scott Luskin, John Carlo Redeña‐Santos, Gabriella Fredriksson, Matthew Ward, Erik Meijaard, Jan van der Ploeg, Andaman Chankhao, Marcus A.H. Chua, Suipeng Heon, Ret Thaung, L. C. Wong, Matthew Linkie, David W. Macdonald, Saw Soe Aung, Tim Redford, Thomas Gray, Benjamin P. Y.‐H. Lee, Nantachai Pongpattananurak, Samuel Xin Tham Lee, Mohamad Arif Rifqi, Liam J. Hughes, Oliver R. Wearn, Freddy Pattiselanno, Muhammad Syazwan Bin Omar, Camille N. Z. Coudrat, Sally Soo Kaicheen, Stuart J. Davies, Harry Hilser, Dhritiman Das, Russell J. Gray, Salwa Khalid, Parag Deka, Glyn Davies, Suzika Juiling, Fernando Garcia‐Gil, Lukemann Haqeem Alen
article en
3 citations

Abstract

ABSTRACT The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population‐level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in the region for native pig species, we gathered qualitative information on wild pig population dynamics in Southeast Asia between 2018 and 2024 from 88 expert elicitation questionnaires representing sites in 11 countries. Peak reported population declines occurred in 2021 and 2022, with more than half of respondents reporting declining wild pig populations, far higher than in earlier years. The reported declines waned to 44.23% in 2024, whereas simultaneously, the number of populations reported to be “increasing” increased from 11.3%–13.2% in 2019–2022 to 28.9% in 2024. These reports suggest that the ASF outbreak may have peaked for wild boars and bearded pigs in mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with some subsequent recovery. However, the disease is still expanding into the ranges of island endemic species, such as new reports for the Sulawesi warty pig ( Sus celebensis ) in September of 2024. Island endemics remain particularly vulnerable to extinction from ASF and require urgent monitoring and conservation action.

Conservation LettersVol. 18(3)
University of the Philippines Los Baños (PH), Universiti Putra Malaysia (MY), Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust (JE), University of Wisconsin–Madison (US), The University of Queensland (AU), National University of Singapore (SG), State University of Papua (ID), Universiti Brunei Darussalam (BN), Kasetsart University (TH), University of Kent (GB), University of Exeter (GB), Sabah Wildlife Department (MY), Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences (NL), Farm Foundation (US), Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (CN), Copenhagen Zoo (DK), University of Indonesia (ID), Southern Luzon State University (PH), University of Oxford (GB), Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (MY), Universitas Muhammadiyah Luwuk Banggai (ID), Indonesian Coral Reef Foundation (ID), Biodiversity and Nature Conservation Association (MM), Sabah Environmental Trust (MY), ForestGEO (US), Phnom Penh International University (KH), Wildlife Conservation Society Indonesia (ID), Cat Tien National Park (VN), Thai Health Promotion Foundation (TH), Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda (ID), Brunei Polytechnic (BN), Zoo Negara (MY), Imperial College London (GB), King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi (TH), University of Montana (US), Cardiff University (GB), University of California, Berkeley (US)
Leverhulme Trust, University of Queensland
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology
5.71
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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