Dynamical analysis of a monkeypox spread model with human to human saturated incidence rate and environmental transmission

In this paper, we study the behavior of monkeypox spread by constructing a compartmental model describing virus transmission between humans, animals, and the environment. The model incorporates vaccination on susceptible humans, quarantine on exposed humans, and hospitalization on infected humans. A saturated incidence rate is applied to obtain a more realistic model. The model's basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is obtained by applying the next generation matrix method. The analysis shows that the local stability of the equilibrium points depends on the value of $R_0$, and it is also shown that the model undergoes forward bifurcation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to illustrate the analytical results.

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Publication Details

Journal
Mathematics in Applied Sciences and Engineering
Published
2025-06-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/22269
Primary Topic
Bacteriophages and microbial interactions
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Dynamical analysis of a monkeypox spread model with human to human saturated incidence rate and environmental transmission

Trisilowati, Wuryansari Muharini Kusumawinahyu, Brazil Vargas Junior Possumah
Mathematics in Applied Sciences and Engineering
Bacteriophages and microbial interactions
article

Dynamical analysis of a monkeypox spread model with human to human saturated incidence rate and environmental transmission

Trisilowati, Wuryansari Muharini Kusumawinahyu, Brazil Vargas Junior Possumah
article en

Abstract

In this paper, we study the behavior of monkeypox spread by constructing a compartmental model describing virus transmission between humans, animals, and the environment. The model incorporates vaccination on susceptible humans, quarantine on exposed humans, and hospitalization on infected humans. A saturated incidence rate is applied to obtain a more realistic model. The model's basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is obtained by applying the next generation matrix method. The analysis shows that the local stability of the equilibrium points depends on the value of $R_0$, and it is also shown that the model undergoes forward bifurcation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to illustrate the analytical results.

Mathematics in Applied Sciences and Engineering
University of Brawijaya (ID)
Openalex Percentile: Top 87%
Bacteriophages and microbial interactions
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