Intersectional Predictors of Early Mathematics Identity Among Underrepresented Engineering-interested Students

This study examines the intersectional factors influencing early mathematics identity development among underrepresented secondary students (grades 9-10) with aspirations in engineering. Mathematics identity is a well-established predictor of long-term persistence in engineering, making its early formation critical to understanding student retention in the engineering pipeline. Grounded in Bronfenbrenner's bioecological framework, this study situates learning within nested layers of influence. Using data form the nationally representative High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09), which includes over 23,000 9th-graders, a hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted. The analysis examined intersections of race and gender identity across 16 variables spanning individual, micro-, meso-, and exosystem factors, controlling for 8th-grade mathematics scores. Results revealed that the model explained 58.8% of the variance in mathematics identity (<tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$F[24], [176]=121.11, \mathrm{p}&lt;.001$</tex>). Developing a community of practice - characterized by having a math or science mentor and participating in a school math club - emerged as a key mesosystemic predictor (beta=.371, p=.004) of 9th-grade math identity (beta=.367, pÁ.001) and current math interest (beta=.377, <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\mathrm{p}&lt;.001$</tex>) among engineering-aspiring students. These findings highlight the critical role of mesosystemic support in fostering early mathematics identity and provide a robust predictive framework for broadening participation of underrepresented students in engineering pathways. Implications for educators, policymakers, and curriculum designers include fostering inclusive communities of practice and enhancing support systems to promote equitable engineering opportunities.